Is the NSW Covid wave peaking? NSW Health reporting suggests it is, but their statistics don’t really report that view.
On Boxing Day here in Sydney, there is another Covid wave, and some people are curious to know if it’s peaked yet. I keep thinking I’ve written my last Covid reflection, but there is always another actuarial angle! This time it is to share an insight from one of my fellow actuaries and Covid analyst, Karen Cutter.Continue Reading
With the number of COVID-19 cases in Australia continuing to increase, Long Covid cases are going to continue to grow in Australia. Based on the UK statistics, current case numbers could lead to up to 100,000 cases in the Australian population.Continue Reading
What does “living with Covid” mean in Australia in 2022? There is continued pressure on the hospital and health care system, with illness creating disruption in most workplaces. It is likely that life expectancy has reduced by 6 – 12 months.
The impact is definitely substantially worse than a bad flu season, but at the same time it isn’t the catastrophe it would have been without an effective vaccine.
So what should we do about it? My view is that we should continue to look for mitigations that work to limit the spread of Covid19, without having too much of an impact on day to day lives – a vaccination plus strategy. On vaccination, we should make a bigger attempt to vaccinate those who aren’t yet fully vaccinated – the school children in the 5-11 age group are not even 50% vaccinated yet, only two thirds of adults have had their third booster doses. We should be monitoring and improving ventilation and/or air filtration in all public buildings – eg schools, offices, shopping centres. While that will be expensive, the cost of this much illness is quite substantial, even ignoring the human implications. We should continue the cultural change we have started of wearing masks where possible (such as public transport) and staying home when we are sick. Reducing the spread of this disease is worth quite a lot both economically and socially.Continue Reading
What do we know about the risks of Long Covid? A closer look at Long Covid, what we know about how risky it is, and how serious it is. It can be very serious, enough that avoiding infection is a good idea. But how likely is it? Very hard to measure.Continue Reading
What proportion of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, rather than being with Covid? Evidence from Australia and the UK suggests the vast majority of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, and the others were hastened by it.What proportion of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, rather than being with Covid? Evidence from Australia and the UK suggests the vast majority of reported Covid19 deaths are caused by Covid19, and the others were hastened by it.Continue Reading
Now that we have the biggest Covid19 outbreak yet in NSW, what is the impact likely to be on hospitals? A fast growing outbreak with lower hospitalisations is still likely to lead to more total Covid19 hospitalisations than we have seen here so far. Continue Reading
Since the Omicron variant was first identified as a variant of concern, everyone wants to understand severity. An initial study in South Africa suggests Omicron is less severe, whereas a UK study finds no difference. My view? Too early too tell.
There are two main published analyses of severity so far (neither peer reviewed) based on substantial population level data from South African and the UK. But even substantial data is still very early in this outbreak.Continue Reading
Vaccination take-up rates are based on population estimates. For Australia as a whole, the ABS’s estimates of population are probably quite accurate. But the more localised the analysis, the greater the approximations required. Inaccuracies in population estimates are more likely in areas with large transient populations, particularly those who do not have citizenship or permanent residency. It’s probably not a coincidence that the Melbourne City Council area has the highest transient population and the lowest first dose vaccination rate in the whole of NSW and Victoria.Continue Reading
If everyone in Australia who can be vaccinated, is vaccinated, what can we expect when Covid19 becomes widespread in the population? There are likely to still be significant pressures on the hospital system, particularly if it happens too quickly.
If, after everyone in Australia who can be is vaccinated (I’ve assumed 95% of everyone 12 and over), everyone in Australia is exposed to Covid19, what can we expect from Covid19? We can expect around 400,000 – 600,000 eventual hospitalisations (60% of whom would have been vaccinated), with around 50,000 – 80,000 (70% of whom would have been vaccinated) of those ended up in ICU. Around 200,000 – 400,000 people are likely to end up with Long Covid, the majority of whom (150,000 – 250,000) will be of working age. And around 15,000 – 25,000 (50% of whom would have been vaccinated) deaths from Covid are likely to occur. How long will that take? That depends on how well we control the spread of Covid19.Continue Reading
How does Australia’s 2021 Covid19 wave compare to 2020? So far, cases are around three times higher and deaths are around a third of last year.
Today’s analysis is a quick graph. I’ve seen this graph from lots of other countries, but now here in Australia our latest wave is big enough to categorically show that vaccination has made a difference compared with the Victorian wave last year. As you can see, in 2020, deaths lagged cases by around 2-3 weeks. This year, the death rates compared with numbers of cases is substantially lower, and the rate also looks as if it is slightly improving.Continue Reading