modelling

Are the Doherty Institute assumptions about vaccine effectiveness optimistic? And does it matter? Yes and yes. So we should monitor the spread of Covid19 closely as vaccination rates increase, and use 70% and 80% adult vaccination rates as guides, rather than stick to then as rigid rules to decide how to ease restrictions across Australia.

A reminder that the Doherty Institute report makes it clear that to control the Delta variant, ongoing public health and social measures such as contact tracing, isolating, and restraints on social mixing (compared with pre virus days) are needed no matter what vaccination rate is achieved, so a gradual guided relaxation of measures is what is recommended anyway.Continue Reading