Work and life

Book Review: Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models can lead us Astray and What we can do about it, by Erica Thompson

Today I’m reviewing a book that I loved, a book for any actuary, or indeed model builder or model user to read. I felt as if I highlighted half of this book, so I’ll try and give you enough of a flavour of Thompson’s insights so that you feel compelled to read it yourself.Continue Reading

I’ve just published my annual round-up of my non fiction reading for last year here. Do go and read the whole list, but here I’ll just mention my absolute favourites for the year (or at least the ones I keep telling people to go and read). A variety of topics, from history, to feminism, politics and risk culture, so I hope you’ll find one you like.  From each of the main themes I read this year, I’ve chosen one or two that I really loved.Continue Reading

In NSW in this wave of Covid19, are hospitals starting to ration care and send more sick people home as they run out of space? The statistics suggest that hospital in the home is being used more and more to take the pressure off hospitals. But some of the reduction in hospitalised cases could also be vaccination starting to reduce the seriousness of Covid19 illnesses.Continue Reading

The Covid19 outbreak in NSW continues to grow despite a gradually tightening lockdown. The current doubling time is about 11 days, meaning that my simple model is projecting 1,000 cases a day by the end of August. It seems the only way out is vaccination. How much vaccination? The DohertyContinue Reading

Did more than 60,000 cases of Covid19 go undetected in Australia before the second wave in Victoria? It’s possible. But I don’t think the new widely-reported study adds any strong evidence for it. You’ve probably seen reporting of this (not yet peer reviewed) study, suggesting that perhaps 60,000 people in AustraliaContinue Reading