Risk management

The first phase of uninhabitability is uninsurability – Michael Mann, renowned climate scientist.

As climate risks to property increase, the people who live in places exposed to those risk are less and less able to afford to insure their properties. Which will start to create climate ghettos. And the housing crisis in Australia will worsen, as areas in areas with high risk of disaster become uninsurable.Continue Reading

I’ve just published my annual round-up of my non fiction reading for last year here. Do go and read the whole list, but here I’ll just mention my absolute favourites for the year (or at least the ones I keep telling people to go and read). A variety of topics, from history, to feminism, politics and risk culture, so I hope you’ll find one you like.  From each of the main themes I read this year, I’ve chosen one or two that I really loved.Continue Reading

Since the Omicron variant was first identified as a variant of concern, everyone wants to understand severity. An initial study in South Africa suggests Omicron is less severe, whereas a UK study finds no difference. My view? Too early too tell.

There are two main published analyses of severity so far (neither peer reviewed) based on substantial population level data from South African and the UK. But even substantial data is still very early in this outbreak.Continue Reading

If everyone in Australia who can be vaccinated, is vaccinated, what can we expect when Covid19 becomes widespread in the population? There are likely to still be significant pressures on the hospital system, particularly if it happens too quickly.
If, after everyone in Australia who can be is vaccinated (I’ve assumed 95% of everyone 12 and over), everyone in Australia is exposed to Covid19, what can we expect from Covid19? We can expect around 400,000 – 600,000 eventual hospitalisations (60% of whom would have been vaccinated), with around 50,000 – 80,000 (70% of whom would have been vaccinated) of those ended up in ICU. Around 200,000 – 400,000 people are likely to end up with Long Covid, the majority of whom (150,000 – 250,000) will be of working age. And around 15,000 – 25,000 (50% of whom would have been vaccinated) deaths from Covid are likely to occur.  How long will that take? That depends on how well we control the spread of Covid19.Continue Reading

Australia has had very little Covid19 compared with the rest of the world, due to very strict border controls and lockdowns. But with the rest of the world opening up as their populations are increasingly vaccinated, how does Australia do the same? I look at some initial modelling from the Burnet Institute.  My key takeaways? The better the vaccine efficacy (particularly against any form of infection and transmission) the more we can open up without serious Covid19 disease. And waiting until a reasonable proportion of the population is vaccinated (say 40%) makes a real difference to the incidence of severe disease and death.Continue Reading

How should actuaries advise their companies on climate change? Increasingly all financial institutions need to consider the impact of the risks associated with climate change on their core businesses. Even if they aren’t exposed to the physical risks of climate change (as general insurers are), other risks are increasing and need to be managed.Continue Reading

Blue jelly fish on the beach

NSW’s hotel quarantine tell us a bit about asymptomatic Sars Cov2 – how prevalent is it? Initial data in NSW (where people were tested either if they were symptomatic, or on Day 10 of Hotel quarantine) showed that 40% of Sars Cov2 cases were completely asymptomatic. In more current data,Continue Reading