Category: Risk management

Book Review: Superforecasting

Today’s book review is Superforecasting: The art and science of Prediction, by Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner. When I explain my work as an actuary to people not involved in finance, I explain that I work out how much money the insurance company needs to set aside from the premiums it receives to make sure…

Is mortality improving? Who for?

Late last year, there was a flurry of mainstream interest in mortality statistics – here is the New York Times reporting on a study by two economists (Ann Case and Angus Deaton) The paper: documents a marked increase in the all-cause mortality of middle-aged white non-Hispanic men and women in the United States between 1999 and 2013. This…

A cycling update

Last year, after a spate of cycling deaths, I posted about the riskiness of cycling in Sydney. I concluded that cycling Sydney’s streets is actually safer than it was 20 years ago. Since then, I’ve gone back to a regular commute – I’m cycling to work two or three times a week at the moment.…