As Australia has its annual debate about whether it is appropriate to have our national day on the anniversary of the day when a British naval officer planted the British flag, and claimed half a continent for Great Britain, ignoring the people who already lived here, I’m looking at someContinue Reading
Should we worry about recent post vaccination deaths in Norway? Almost certainly not. When elderly people are vaccinated, sadly some of them die quite soon afterwards, probably coincidentally. This has happened at the beginning of the rollout of the Pfizer vaccine in Norway, and there will probably be more reportsContinue Reading
How should actuaries advise their companies on climate change? Increasingly all financial institutions need to consider the impact of the risks associated with climate change on their core businesses. Even if they aren’t exposed to the physical risks of climate change (as general insurers are), other risks are increasing and need to be managed.Continue Reading
I’ve just published my annual round-up of my non fiction reading for last year here. Do go and read the whole list, but here I’ll just mention my absolute favourites for the year (or at least the ones I keep telling people to go and read). A variety of topics, so I hope you’ll find one you like. They’re not in any particular order.Continue Reading
New mutations of Sars-Cov2 are estimated to be around 50% more infectious, which makes suppressing spread of the virus 50% harder, and herd immunity harder to achieve with vaccination.Continue Reading
How does NSW stack up against the Swiss Cheese respiratory virus pandemic defence? Pretty well, but there are a few things (including mandatory facemasks) that we could do better. With Sydney in the midst of a new outbreak of Covid19 (for all my northern hemisphere readers, you’ll probably wish forContinue Reading
NSW’s hotel quarantine tell us a bit about asymptomatic Sars Cov2 – how prevalent is it? Initial data in NSW (where people were tested either if they were symptomatic, or on Day 10 of Hotel quarantine) showed that 40% of Sars Cov2 cases were completely asymptomatic. In more current data,Continue Reading
Two vaccines – Pfizer and Moderna – have now announced the preliminary results of their Phase III trials. And it’s very good news – the results are very strong, and supported by enough data that they are almost certainly more than 90% effective (VE – vaccine efficacy), with their bestContinue Reading
This week everyone in Australia is celebrating Victoria’s success in smashing its second wave of Covid19. So how does Victoria’s experience compare with the rest of the world’s? Extraordinarily well. I’ve looked at every country in Our World in Data. And there are plenty that have managed to reduce a second wave of Covid19 to half or a third its original size. But most of those have had the virus come roaring back again even worse – once restrictions are eased again.Continue Reading
Europe is having a second wave of Covid19. But what can we learn from our neighbours in East Asia? Quite a lot, we should pay more attention to them. The world is full of tough news about a second wave of Covid, particularly in Europe. But I thought it wasContinue Reading